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Our View: We Like It Robinhood tripled its revenue in three years, hit record profits, and is transforming from a stock trading app into a full financial platform. The stock is 55% below its October high. That pullback creates a compelling entry — but this is a cyclical business tied to trading volumes and crypto, so the ride won't be smooth.

01

The Story

A few years ago, Robinhood was the meme stock trading app — fun, controversial, and not particularly profitable. That company doesn't exist anymore. What replaced it is a fast-growing financial platform that just posted record revenue, record profits, and record deposits.

Revenue hit $4.5 billion in 2025, up 52% from the year before — and more than three times what it was in 2023. The company isn't just making money from trades anymore. Net interest revenue (from margin lending, cash balances, and securities lending) grew 39%. Gold subscription revenue is booming. The Gold Card has 600,000 customers spending $10 billion a year. Prediction markets — launched in 2025 — already have a $300 million run rate.

CEO Vlad Tenev calls it the "Financial SuperApp" — one place where you trade stocks, earn interest, get a credit card, save for retirement, trade futures and prediction markets, and eventually bank. Over 40% of platform assets are now in non-trading products like ETFs, advisory accounts, retirement, and cash. That diversification is the key to the investment thesis: Robinhood is becoming less dependent on the next crypto rally.

The stock got cut in half because crypto cooled off and trading volumes slowed. Q4 crypto revenue fell 38%. That's the cyclical reality of this business — when markets are quiet, Robinhood's revenue takes a hit. But the structural growth (deposits, subscribers, banking, international) keeps compounding underneath.

Recent catalysts: a $1.5 billion share buyback announced in March 2026, selection as the brokerage for the government's new Trump Accounts program (tax-deferred accounts for children), and continued international expansion with 750,000 customers outside the U.S.

02	The Numbers

Here's the data for those who want to dig in.

Stock Price $69.65

Market Cap ~$63B

Revenue Growth +52%

Platform Assets $324B

Year	Revenue	Growth	Adj EBITDA	EPS
FY 2023	$1.9B	+37%	$0.6B	-$0.61
FY 2024	$2.95B	+52%	$1.4B	$1.56
FY 2025	$4.5B	+52%	$2.5B (56% margin)	$2.05
Q4 2025	$1.28B	+27%	—	$0.66

What the numbers tell us:

The growth trajectory is remarkable. Revenue tripled in three years. Adjusted EBITDA margins hit 56% — meaning for every dollar that comes in, more than half is profit before some accounting adjustments. EPS went from a loss to a record $2.05. Gold subscribers grew 58% to 4.2 million. Platform assets hit $324 billion.

At 34x trailing earnings with this growth rate, the valuation makes sense. If EPS grows to $2.50–$3.00 in 2026 (which the trajectory supports), the stock at $70 would be trading at 23–28x — cheap for a fintech growing this fast.

But this is a cyclical business — and that matters. Trading volumes and crypto prices directly impact revenue. When markets are hot, Robinhood thrives. When they cool off, so does the stock. The 55% pullback happened because crypto revenue dropped and trading activity slowed. That risk doesn't go away just because the company is diversifying.

03

The Chart

The Trend	Correcting — below the 50-day ($100) but still nearly 2x above the rising 200-day ($39)
Momentum (RSI)	Approaching oversold — RSI at 34–38. Selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.
Where it sits	55% below the $154 October high. Up ~110% from the $33 52-week low.

What this tells us: Robinhood has been cut in half, which is painful if you bought at the top — but creates an interesting entry if you're looking at the fundamentals. The RSI near 34–38 suggests the selling is getting exhausted. The long-term uptrend from $33 is still intact.

April 28 earnings is the catalyst. If net deposit growth stays strong (target: 20%+) and the "SuperApp" metrics keep compounding, this correction likely marks a bottom. If trading volumes disappoint again, the stock could test lower levels.

04	The Bottom Line

How We're Thinking About It

The current price around $70 looks interesting precisely because the market is pricing in the cyclical downside but not the structural transformation. The metric to watch is net deposits — not trading volume. If new money keeps flowing onto the platform even when crypto is cool, the "SuperApp" thesis is working. April 28 earnings will tell us.

This isn't a name for everyone. If watching a position drop 30–40% in a few months makes you anxious, the volatility here will be uncomfortable. But if you can look past the noise and focus on the multi-year platform build — banking, credit, international, prediction markets — the setup at these levels is worth paying attention to.